Found this on the Rick Steves Forum today- I copied and pasted the highlights - I did delate names, so it seems jumbled, but still interesting. I hadn't seen this info. That forum is much more active than this one, so I follow it closely. One lady who lives in Germany is also very active, so I like to read what she says. This was pretty discouraging to me today . . .
""Today's WSJ had an article that predicted Germany and Italy would need until June of 2023 to inoculate 60% of their population. Do you feel safe traveling to a country where 40% of the people you're likely to encounter are still susceptible to, or carriers of, a COVID variant? And if it takes that long for relatively advanced and prosperous countries to reach that level of containment, what about those who lack the resources and infrastructure (to say nothing of political will)?
Personally I'm hesitant to travel anywhere, including inside my own country, where there's even a 10% chance of encountering a deadly virus.
Today's WSJ had an article that predicted Germany and Italy would need until June of 2023 to inoculate 60% of their population.
Is that because of supply and logistic issues, or reluctance to be vaccinated?
It's outside of Europe, but if you have it in your mind to visit your closest 'international' neighbour, Canada, I wouldn't be making early plans for that either. We have been hit with decreased delivery of vaccine, and in early days, were slow to be able to move health care workers from testing and front line work to vaccine clinics and still maintain support for the first 2 arenas. So my province specifically, is well off track for the vaccine plan. Our first priority was to vaccinate the long term care homes; and today's news states we missed our anticipated goal for that. Though I am an essential worker at the hospital lab 5 days a week and 63, I am not 'patient facing' so have no idea when my number comes up for vaccines. EDIT: in conversation with manager today, our expected vaccine timeframe is 'late summer, early-mid Fall'. My over 65 friends are thinking 'maybe' April. We have just instigated a limit of 6 arrival airports in the entire country and testing is required upon arrival and quarantine in assigned hotels until test is recieved....then you get to go somewhere for your personal 14 day isolation. We think of September as being the first possible lift of international travel ban/recommendation to not travel. So I wouldn't expect US borders to open any time soon either.
So will that mean it will take until 2023 to have us vaccinated as well? Maybe; but I sure hope to God not. I try not to comment or be jealous on Feb vaccine dates, or a quoted quote of a million residents being vaccinated in 24 hours from my RS peeps. It is NOT a global picture of the vaccine situation so the litmus test of when to travel needs to be a global knowledge, not a regional one. Logistics needs to be in place and completed before we can even look at the compliance rate; which then will allow people to make the decisions that work for them.....so, maybe 2023 isn't such an unrealistic timeline.....
Though the WSJ is a reputable source, I cannot believe that Germany will not have 60 percent of its population vaccinated until mid-2023. This seems impossible. I did not read the article, but my guess is that the article says that if the current vaccination rate in Germany stays constant, it will not be 2023 until most in Germany are vaccinated. Germany and the other EU countries have gotten off to a very slow start with Covid vaccinations. But I would expect that the vaccination rates will increase dramatically in the EU countries over the next six to nine months.
Jo, you are in the best position to comment if you would care to do so.
Posted by Nigel
Northamptonshire, England
02/03/21 10:43 AM
24252 posts
A further article today, which discusses how the EU lagged months behind the UK and the US in establishing contracts for vaccines, and was also betting on other vaccine providers being available. So now they are scrambling to get more supply. A decision was made early on that the EU would do this collectively so that individual countries would not get in a bidding war and drive the prices up, and that poorer countries would be treated equitably.
Another article describe how the Russian vaccine has shown some proof of efficacy and may be approved in the West. But their supplies have already been contracted by other countries (India, Iran), so wouldn't necessarily provide a big boost to the West. Their vaccine is based on using another virus so works differently.
Here's the quote, from a report thru the IMF on the economy:
"At the current pace, the U.K. should have administered at least one dose of vaccine to 60% of its population by June, and the U.S. could follow by October, according to Berenberg Bank. France and Spain won’t reach that threshold until summer 2022, and Germany and Italy will take until 2023, the bank said."
Now, myself, I find the IMF a fairly optimistic organization with world class experts to draw on for information. Much better than MSM at all points.
Add to this the current expectation that the best of the anti-virus will meet and retain a 90% effectiveness (none of which have been proven for more than 6 months at this point), and I'm frankly astounded by the number of people who are expecting to see tourism rebound within the next year.
And a link to the article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-economy-falls-further-behind-u-s-and-china-its-getting-desperate-11612272788
