Europe way behind on vaccines - copied from Rick Steves Forum.
Found this on the Rick Steves Forum today- I copied and pasted the highlights - I did delate names, so it seems jumbled, but still interesting. I hadn't seen this info. That forum is much more active than this one, so I follow it closely. One lady who lives in Germany is also very active, so I like to read what she says. This was pretty discouraging to me today . . .
""Today's WSJ had an article that predicted Germany and Italy would need until June of 2023 to inoculate 60% of their population. Do you feel safe traveling to a country where 40% of the people you're likely to encounter are still susceptible to, or carriers of, a COVID variant? And if it takes that long for relatively advanced and prosperous countries to reach that level of containment, what about those who lack the resources and infrastructure (to say nothing of political will)?
Personally I'm hesitant to travel anywhere, including inside my own country, where there's even a 10% chance of encountering a deadly virus.
Today's WSJ had an article that predicted Germany and Italy would need until June of 2023 to inoculate 60% of their population.
Is that because of supply and logistic issues, or reluctance to be vaccinated?
It's outside of Europe, but if you have it in your mind to visit your closest 'international' neighbour, Canada, I wouldn't be making early plans for that either. We have been hit with decreased delivery of vaccine, and in early days, were slow to be able to move health care workers from testing and front line work to vaccine clinics and still maintain support for the first 2 arenas. So my province specifically, is well off track for the vaccine plan. Our first priority was to vaccinate the long term care homes; and today's news states we missed our anticipated goal for that. Though I am an essential worker at the hospital lab 5 days a week and 63, I am not 'patient facing' so have no idea when my number comes up for vaccines. EDIT: in conversation with manager today, our expected vaccine timeframe is 'late summer, early-mid Fall'. My over 65 friends are thinking 'maybe' April. We have just instigated a limit of 6 arrival airports in the entire country and testing is required upon arrival and quarantine in assigned hotels until test is recieved....then you get to go somewhere for your personal 14 day isolation. We think of September as being the first possible lift of international travel ban/recommendation to not travel. So I wouldn't expect US borders to open any time soon either.
So will that mean it will take until 2023 to have us vaccinated as well? Maybe; but I sure hope to God not. I try not to comment or be jealous on Feb vaccine dates, or a quoted quote of a million residents being vaccinated in 24 hours from my RS peeps. It is NOT a global picture of the vaccine situation so the litmus test of when to travel needs to be a global knowledge, not a regional one. Logistics needs to be in place and completed before we can even look at the compliance rate; which then will allow people to make the decisions that work for them.....so, maybe 2023 isn't such an unrealistic timeline.....
Though the WSJ is a reputable source, I cannot believe that Germany will not have 60 percent of its population vaccinated until mid-2023. This seems impossible. I did not read the article, but my guess is that the article says that if the current vaccination rate in Germany stays constant, it will not be 2023 until most in Germany are vaccinated. Germany and the other EU countries have gotten off to a very slow start with Covid vaccinations. But I would expect that the vaccination rates will increase dramatically in the EU countries over the next six to nine months.
Jo, you are in the best position to comment if you would care to do so.
Posted by Nigel
Northamptonshire, England
02/03/21 10:43 AM
24252 posts
A further article today, which discusses how the EU lagged months behind the UK and the US in establishing contracts for vaccines, and was also betting on other vaccine providers being available. So now they are scrambling to get more supply. A decision was made early on that the EU would do this collectively so that individual countries would not get in a bidding war and drive the prices up, and that poorer countries would be treated equitably.
Another article describe how the Russian vaccine has shown some proof of efficacy and may be approved in the West. But their supplies have already been contracted by other countries (India, Iran), so wouldn't necessarily provide a big boost to the West. Their vaccine is based on using another virus so works differently.
Here's the quote, from a report thru the IMF on the economy:
"At the current pace, the U.K. should have administered at least one dose of vaccine to 60% of its population by June, and the U.S. could follow by October, according to Berenberg Bank. France and Spain won’t reach that threshold until summer 2022, and Germany and Italy will take until 2023, the bank said."
Now, myself, I find the IMF a fairly optimistic organization with world class experts to draw on for information. Much better than MSM at all points.
Add to this the current expectation that the best of the anti-virus will meet and retain a 90% effectiveness (none of which have been proven for more than 6 months at this point), and I'm frankly astounded by the number of people who are expecting to see tourism rebound within the next year.
And a link to the article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-economy-falls-further-behind-u-s-and-china-its-getting-desperate-11612272788
Comments
https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/publications/specials_fmo/2021_02_03_EurozoneVaccination.html
France and Germany will not approve the vaccine for anyone over the age of 65. If they don’t change that, I don’t know how they will achieve any sort of herd immunity.
Many countries with socialized medicine don't approve expensive, life-extending procedures, such as organ transplants, for the elderly, either. This is just another way to keep expenditures down - increase the likelihood of an earlier demise for those who use the bulk of healthcare euros.
BKMD Can you please read up and see that the reason they are not approving the vaccine for over 65’s is they say there is not enough data on the study of the vaccine in that age group. The Uk has socialized medicine and they sure are doing a better job vaccinating their population than we are. The Uk provides free medications for everyone over 65, for pregnant women and for the year after pregnancy. I could tell you more, I worked for the NHS. Both Germany and France care for their citizens more than the US. If you call yourself a traveler, you should have seen this.
British - just one example from your homeland:
https://www.kidneycareuk.org/about-kidney-health/treatments/transplantation/#:~:text=You must be healthy enough,compatibility, general health and counselling.
Bad example, Sealord. North Dakota is actually one of the top ranked states in vaccinations.
Thanks for the link, nothing negative there. It doesn’t cost you a penny to have a kidney transplant there. People here
are under the same type of system for priority.
Yes British. Actually, the highest ranked state ... but one of the lowest in population which was my point. But, Wyoming would have been the best choice. The vaccine distribution to states is based upon population.
Vaccine distribution was based on the population of the state, But sadly not where in the state the population is. So in our state, the rural areas are doing great, yep the people in the main who never go to the cities. Yep, another failure by Trump that has to be changed. And Sealord, you e been saying all along there are hardly any cases in your area and the hospitals are empty, yet you got your vaccine, how lucky you are. Unfortunately, it’s not going to make any difference about your foreign travel plans in the near future. My husband keeps telling me, as long as we survive before we get our vaccine, we won’t miss out on any travel this year. I’m trying to be as cheerful as him.
“I’m trying to be as cheerful as him.”
You are not succeeding. (;-)
😂😂😂I know I know I know
And this today from someone who lives in France - so discouraging -
"""I increasingly doubt that France will have re-opened to non-EU tourism by summer and late summer is perhaps not something you want to bet money on. As time has gone on, the entry restrictions have become more restrictive - not less and non-EU tourists are still not allowed and neither are EU ones at the moment. Current entry restrictions include having a right to be here, which generally means residency or citizenship, plus a pressing need to travel and a negative PCR test. This is followed after arrival by a 7 day self-isolation period followed by another PCR test - which was added in recent weeks.
When France does lift it's restrictions on tourists traveling here (which for the moment essentially means all non-French residents), it's not going to be because those tourists are vaccinated. It's going to be because covid is under control in France and all the French people the state wants to have vaccinated before re-opening, are. It will also require recipricol action to allow travel by the other state. It will first start with a re-opening of borders to all EU citizens, then external borders at some future point. External borders have to be decided collectively so is perhaps more challenging. Given how France and the EU are having a slow vaccine rollout due to shortages, this could take some time. French thinking is also that since the covid vaccines are not 100% effective at preventing infection in the first place, it is possible for a tourist or anyone else outside of France to bring in covid and in particular of a strain they don't want. Also, to people that think the French will re-open tourism because tourism is very important to France, remember that non-French resident tourism is only 2.5% of GDP. France cares more about the other 97.5%."""
In different thread I predicted European vacations don’t return before Spring/Summer of 2022. Seems to correlate with terrilynn’s statements about France and the EU.